Slovenia
| FORECAST* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Economic Indicators | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
| Population, 1000 persons | 2112 | 2120 | 2126 | . | . | . |
| GDP, real change in % | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| GDP per capita (EUR at PPP) | 32060 | 35000 | 36060 | . | . | . |
| Gross industrial production, real change in % | 1.2 | -5.6 | -1.0 | . | . | . |
| Unemployment rate - LFS, in %, average | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Average gross monthly wages, EUR | 2024 | 2221 | 2395 | . | . | . |
| Consumer prices, % p.a. | 9.3 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal balance in % of GDP | -3.0 | -2.6 | -0.9 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -1.9 |
| Public debt in % of GDP | 72.7 | 68.4 | 67.0 | . | . | . |
| Current account in % of GDP | -1.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| FDI inflow, EUR m | 2183 | 1338 | 1802 | . | . | . |
| Gross external debt in % of GDP | 91.0 | 90.4 | 88.5 | . | . | . |
Basic data are continuously updated.
* Forecasts are changed beginning of January, April, July and November.
See Press Conferences.
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Monthly Report No. 7-8/2025
Vasily Astrov, Alexandra Bykova, Selena Duraković, Meryem Gökten, Richard Grieveson, Maciej Grodzicki, Ioannis Gutzianas, Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Gabor Hunya, Branimir Jovanović, Niko Korpar, Dzmitry Kruk, Sebastian Leitner, Isilda Mara, Emilia Penkova-Pearson, Olga Pindyuk, Sandor Richter, Marko Sošić, Bernd Christoph Ströhm and Maryna Tverdostup
wiiw Monthly Report No. 7-8, July-August 2025
38 pages including 5 Tables and 3 Figures
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Executive summary
Olga Pindyuk
in: The Crisis is Over, but its Scarring Effects are Hindering Recovery
wiiw Forecast Report No. Spring 2024, April 2024 , pp. I-VII
Details
Following an unexpected contraction of 0.8% in Q1 2025, we have revised our growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.6%. The main drag on growth in the first quarter was subdued household consumption (despite recent wage increases and high employment), but in addition there was negligible export growth, due to the uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs and the ongoing economic weakness in Germany. The construction sector also underperformed, and value added in manufacturing fell by 2.1% year on year. In 2025, growth will primarily be supported by government spending (forecast to rise by 1.8%), though there will be a more modest contribution from private consumption. Export growth is expected to reach only 1.7% (down from 2024), but the current account will remain in surplus. Given the sustained uncertainty in global trade, we do not anticipate any marked recovery in external demand before 2027. Inflation reached 1.8% in May, and we forecast that it will average 2.1% for the full year, driven by upward pressure from US trade policy and wage demands in the service sector. The labour market will remain tight, with unemployment at 3.6%. Any job growth will lead to by an influx of foreign workers. Weaker economic performance is likely to weigh on public finances, putting government revenue under pressure. The budget deficit this year is projected to widen to 2.2% of GDP, partly due to higher spending on social care – in particular, long-term social and medical assistance for the elderly – and defence. Ahead of the 2026 elections – and as right-wing parties continue to gain support in the polls – the government is expected to seek to push through previously proposed reforms on pensions, real estate tax and the media.